Rebuilding Place in the Urban Space

"A community’s physical form, rather than its land uses, is its most intrinsic and enduring characteristic." [Katz, EPA] This blog focuses on place and placemaking and all that makes it work--historic preservation, urban design, transportation, asset-based community development, arts & cultural development, commercial district revitalization, tourism & destination development, and quality of life advocacy--along with doses of civic engagement and good governance watchdogging.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Retail consultant Bob Phibbs: Holiday Shopping: 9 Tips To Get Last Minute Shoppers To Spend More In Your Brick And Mortar Store

Years ago I remember reading advice from a retail consultant to department stores like Sears, that if they wanted to sell more, why not provide shopping carts, like grocery stores and discount merchandise stores.

And of course, the six most important words that McDonalds uses to spur add-on sales (although I notice that at the McDonalds I frequent maybe three times/year--I have this "myth" about eating high fat McDonalds food when I have a cold -- they've forgotten to say it):

-- Do you want fries with that?

Retail consultant Bob Phibbs offers retailers some very practical advice to sell more.

From his blog entry, read the entry for the details:

1. Give a shopping basket. If you don’t already have shopping baskets, get them – now. Paco Underhill first reported 75% of people who take a basket actually buy something versus 34% who don’t.

2. Empty their arms. If you are a clothing store, sporting goods, or other retailer where baskets aren’t practical, your crew should still be walking up and offering to take the clothes or items from the shopper so they can be more relaxed while looking around. Yes, some will refuse, some will think about it, and some will accept.

Make this your mantra: full hands equal fewer sales.

3. Keep ‘em in the aisles. Keep your best associates out on the selling floor and away from ringing up sales or wrapping gifts. Their goal is to increase add-ons. As they finish helping someone, make sure they simply ask, “Who else is on your list?” It works wonders.

4. Spotlight A No-brainer Gift. Put one product under 15 bucks, - even better under 10 - by the register, ideally pre-wrapped with a sign that says, “A gift for the person you’re bound to forget.” The key is to have one product that doesn’t require any thinking. The shopper has to get it like a USB charger for $9.95 rather than a tiny book of pithy quotes by Margaret Thatcher.

5. Ship it. While UPS and the rest will be challenged, there’s still time to sign up for a local delivery service like Deliv in the US or Shutl if you’re from the UK. Millennials hate to carry too much – they’d rather have it shipped. Notice I didn’t say free – it’s a value add.

6. Cut the line. If you offer gift wrapping, make sure you have a separate line for pickup away from the queue to pay. Make sure to get their cell phone number so you can text them when it’s ready, and add their name and number to your CRM so you can market to them in January.

7. Heads up. Always instruct your managers to have their heads up and looking around the store to see who has been waiting a long time, who has a question, and which cashier is not up to it. They need to be able to step in as appropriate to keep your store moving along.

8. Keep it clean. Make sure your store is clean and organized by your part-timers or even a young relative.

9. Work the line.

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Sunday, December 17, 2017

Intellectually pure vs. compromise: roads, bridges, tolls, and transit and Northern California

Ex-DC resident, blogger and advocate Geoffrey Hatchard now lives in Northern California and has kept up his transpo advocacy via various acts including stirring the pot via Twitter. 

He came out against a proposal to support a road-heavy transportation funding proposal for Northern California, based on the theory of induced demand--that congestion tends not to end when new highway lanes are added, because demand grows at a rate that absorbs the new capacity.

But his tweets managed to stir up the proponents, including Carl Guardino, a Silicon Valley mover and shaker (who'd be termed part of that area's Growth Machine).

A proposed “Southern Crossing” would carry more than just cars in this architectural rendering of a proposed new bridge, just one of several transportation improvements imagined as part of a “mega” funding measure.

But looking at the proposal ("A multi-billion-dollar ‘mega measure’ to fix Bay Area traffic for good heading your way," San Jose Mercury News), I'm reminded of the line "better to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good" which always pissed me off when tossed at me by various Smart Growth proponents, although I'd argue some projects, perfect is way better, that certain compromises are unjustifiable.  Here I don't think that is the case.  From the article:
“People are wasting hours of their life in traffic,” said Gabriel Metcalf, the president and CEO of SPUR. “Conversations started all over the Bay Area asking the question, can we do something at a bigger scale than we have done before? Big enough to actually solve the problem? Big enough to actually get us a different regional transportation system than we have today?”

Securing passage of Regional Measure 3, the proposed $3 toll increase on most bay bridges, is the first step, Metcalf said. But it’s a small one paving the way for a much bigger ask: A “mega measure” to fix traffic in the Bay Area for good — or at least for the foreseeable future.
First, we have to accept that the headline of the SJMN article is over the top. Because of induced demand, motor vehicle congestion can never be "fixed for good" because by definition a mobility system based on the car uses space poorly--a 40 foot bus carries between 40 and 60 people and takes up the room of three cars and those three cars usually carry from 3 to 5 people.
Amount of space required to transport the user the same number of passengers by car, bus, or bicycle
Amount of space required to transport the user the same number of passengers by car, bus, or bicycle.

From the article:
It’s too early to specify what transformative projects Bay Area residents can expect as part of this mega measure, said Carl Guardino, president and CEO of the Silicon Valley Leadership Group. However, early conversations have shed some light on the direction it might take.

The plan would almost certainly include a major expansion of train service for BART and Caltrain, said Jim Wunderman, president and CEO of the Bay Area Council. First on the list is a second tube, or bridge, for BART, which would allow 24-hour service, minimize the impact from a massive earthquake wiping out the existing Transbay Tube, and provide relief for trains bottle-necking in West Oakland. That tube could include Caltrain, or there could also be a new bay crossing, likely a bridge, to carry Caltrain, high-speed rail, or both, along with cars, Metcalf said.

There could be a vast network of toll lanes ringing the bay and radiating to the north, east and south, he said. They would run parallel to or even share lanes with buses. In turn, those buses, which will one day likely be autonomous, would cruise along at much faster speeds because they would be separated from single-occupancy cars, Metcalf said.

There could be dramatically expanded ferry service, and better access to the North Bay, he said.

“It’s really important to connect to the North Bay,” Metcalf said, “whether that means expanded ferry service or connecting to the SMART train. It seems like a good opportunity.”
But this proposal is interesting in that it is built on adding tolls to area bridges, and using the monies not just to expand roads and bridges, but also transit and to put transit on the proposed South Bay Bridge.

Is that an acceptable compromise?

I would say that it is, but that the proposal isn't good enough, even if it's an important start.

Get the toll, link it to a strong sustainable mobility program, before the Measure goes on the ballot, not after.

Splitting sustainable mobility advocates into pro- and anti- camps is not a good idea. It's also dangerous to split sustainable mobility advocates into pro and anti factions, something that has marked the failure of transportation funding measures in other areas, such as Georgia ("Failure of the transit-roads sales tax measure in Metro Atlanta," 2012 blog entry) over arguments about equity, roads vs. transit, etc.

Clearly a split is developing, given Geoff's tweets and the position of SPUR in the pro-camp, SPUR, the San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association, normally is considered a pro-sustainable land use and transportation organization.

Create a sustainable mobility master plan and get it included as part of Measure 3. What sustainable mobility advocates should do is build a master program for improving the sustainable mobility network, and aim to get "the full program" included/funded with the proposal.

Remember, sustainable mobility is more than "merely" transit, what I used to call the "mobility shed" but now call the sustainable mobility platform, including biking, walking, placemaking improvements, car sharing, and other elements.

Note that the Bay Area is already ahead compared to the DC region, because the SF Bay Metropolitan Planning Organization, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, is one of the nation's most innovative transportation planning organizations.

Models for what I am thinking about are what I've proposed in conjunction with the DC area Purple Line light rail program:

-- "Setting the stage for the Purple Line light rail line to be an overwhelming success: Part 2 | proposed parallel improvements across the transit network"

and what could have been done in association with the Silver Line heavy rail Metrorail extension in Northern Virginia:

-- "Using the Silver Line as the priming event, what would a systematic transit network improvement program look like for NoVA?."

I also have a similar piece that is half-written but unpublished for Southern California in association with the Olympics.

Although LA MTA has just released its own list ("LA Metro lists 28 traffic, train projects it wants done by 2028 Olympics," Pasadena Star-News), my proposed program includes elements that go beyond LA County, to Orange and San Diego Counties, and Tijuana in Baja California, Mexico, plus HSR.

I'll have to finish it before the end of the year.

Bicyclists ride down Colorado Boulevard in Pasadena during CicLAvia
CiCLAvia is held a few times each year, in various LA County locales. It is common for there to be at least 100,000 participants for each event, which is a great base on which to build a stronger program for transportational biking. LA Times photo by Katie Falkenberg.


San Diego's bike program is a preeminent example of my recommendation that "action planning for bicycling as transportation" include strong branding and identity systems.

For example, one of the points I will make in my SoCal list is setting a minimum regional goal of 10% transportational trips by bicycle.

... by building on LA County's CicLAvia program--the nation's most successful "Open Streets" program, a variety of biking as transportation programs in LA County and by LA MTA, which sponsors both CicLAvia and the area's largest bike share program, and is building great bike hubs at transit centers, including Union Station ("New Metro Bike Hub at Union Station is now open"), and SANDAG's great "Go by Bike" bicycle master plan and infrastructure and programming development program.

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Friday, December 15, 2017

An outline for integrated equity planning: concepts and programs

This comes up not just because of mentions in comment threads, but an email thread on the Pro-Urb e-list, which Interesting, on a theoretical basis I have been thinking about this since 2013, when I spent 3 months on grand jury duty and realized that DC spends about $4 billion/year (criminal justice, police, fire, medical, health care, welfare, schools) on the most impoverished parts of the city, but just to keep them "the same."

I came up with the idea of "a Marshall Plan" for wards 7 and 8 in DC, as well as the Latino-dominated Takoma Langley Crossroads area in Montgomery and Prince George's Counties in nearby Maryland, although I haven't fully articulated it.

It's based on the "Signature Streets" concept I have been developing since 2010, originally for transportation, in terms of integrating civic assets and programming into one system. I think it's the root or foundation for integrated equity planning.
Public Realm as an Interconnected system, Slide from presentation, Leadership and the Role of Parks and Recreation in the New Economy, David Barth
Public Realm as an Interconnected system, Slide from presentation, Leadership and the Role of Parks and Recreation in the New Economy, David Barth

I haven't yet aimed to develop this into a massive position paper. And I need someone great at graphic design to help me express it graphically. David Barth gave me permission to use/modify his "integrated public realm framework" and I want to add to it "subway style iconography" for the linkages.

His linkages are just transportation. For me they are also civil society and organizations; media and communications; education; social services; politics and governance; etc.

While Mayor Bowser didn't execute this concept the way I suggested, she did create a new position "Deputy Mayor for Greater Economic Opportunity," based on my conversations with her campaign people.

The program (Woodlawn, Birmingham, Alabama) mentioned in the Pro-Urb thread is interesting. Here and there are similar efforts, such as Price Philanthropies focus on the City Heights neighborhood in San Diego (responded to by the city's Jacobs Foundation with an effort in another neighborhood). But even though the City Heights effort is cool and smart to focus all its efforts and monies on one neighborhood, when I went to check it out, I did wonder "that's all you get for a couple hundred million dollars?"

I haven't addressed the concept for awhile, but I have strung a bunch of best practices that are models. The thing is that most of these best practices are one offs, and need to be integrated into a more overarching and complete program. Here goes:

Conceptual underpinnings
- integrated public realm framework/Signature Streets as the foundation of integrated equity planning
- social urbanism concept in Medellin, Colombia, creating new civic assets in neighborhoods (Library Parks) and better transit connections in topographically challenged areas (escalators, gondola systems, etc.). They've experienced serious decrease in crime/murder. It's funded in part from monies from the publicly owned utility ("'Social urbanism' experiment breathes new life into Colombia's Medellin" Toronto Globe & Mail; "Medellín's 'social urbanism' a model for city transformation," Mail & Guardian) - citizenship culture concept of Antanas Mockus (Former Mayor of Bogota)
- positive deviance model (see the Harvard Business Review article "Your Company's Secret Change Agents," 2005)
- the five point framework in Community Economic Development Handbook by Mihalio Temali
- Main Street commercial district revitalization model
- Social capital/community capital
- Asset Based Community Development (ABCD Institute, Chicago)
- Transformational Projects Action Planning (blog entry)
- Broken Windows Policing (as opposed to Zero Tolerance Policing), ("The state of "broken windows" versus "problem oriented policing" strategies in 2016: Part 1, theory and practice)
- Building Neighborhood Confidence, by Rolf Goetz
- special service districts as funding mechanisms

Policing
- Community Safety Partnership, Los Angeles
- Operation Ceasefire, Boston ("Straight Outta Boston," Mother Jones Magazine)
- High Point, NC program focusing on domestic violence ("How High Point, N.C., Solved Its Domestic Violence Problem," Governing Magazine)

Neighborhood
- United Way Toronto repositioning, spending all its resources on specific targeted neighborhoods (Building Strong Neighborhoods)
- immigrant integration program in Marseille
- "Elm Street" neighborhood revitalization approach -- adapted from Main Street model by State of Pennsylvania, program has since been deemphasized under later administrations
- settlement house model
- Neighborhood Centers Inc., Harris County, Texas
- neighborhood housing improvement programs  including by Mercer University in Macon and the Neighborhood Housing Services program more generally
- Toronto Tower Renewal Program
- East End initiative, Richmond, Virginia
- Grow South initiative, Dallas
- City Heights Initiative, Price Philanthropies, San Diego

Environment
- Toronto's programs dealing with multunit buildings
- San Francisco Green Benefits District
- environmental justice programs generally ("Environmental injustice is rising in the US. Minorities and the poor pay the price," Guardian)
- Push Buffalo Green Development Zone

Health
- proposal for social and community programs integrated into St. Anthony Hospital in Chicago (Focal Point Chicago)
- integrated public health clinics and hospital system in Denver
- community health clinics in DC

Schooling
- schools as combined community centers
- year round school
- enhanced "summer school"
- special assistance programs for Title I schools (Virginia, Montgomery County, Maryland, etc.)
- cooperative high school (a concept of mine)
- various programs with schools including models dealing with immigrants, the Family Resource Center at Rothenberg School in Cincinnati ("Below the Line in Over the Rhine," WCPO-TV)
- the Tacoma Housing Authority's work with elementary schools
- IB as a way to reposition low performing public schools (Rainer Beach High School, Seattle)
-- "Lessons for locals on the power of parents in schools," Seattle Times
-- "More thoughts about connecting communities to schools," 2006

Libraries/Continuing Education/Community Centers
- libraries as combined community centers (Drumbrae Library in Scotland) including as a premier example
- the IdeaStore concept in Tower Hamlets borough, London (combines library + adult education and locates them in highly visible locations in high use districts)
- multi-community centers (Pound Healthy Living Centre, Hampshire County, UK)
- extended hours for libraries and rec/community centers
- "A local community center is helping people conquer inequality," Los Angeles Times

Business development/jobs
- Main Street commercial district revitalization approach
- Community Economic Development Handbook points on microenterprise development and growing good neighborhood jobs
- Evergreen Cooperatives, Cleveland, business and jobs development
- PUSH Buffalo (New York) green jobs program
- West Philadelphia Skills Initiative of the University City District
- supported job settings for people who can work but need support along the way (I wrote about this as a concept)
- food halls/markets as a typology for developing locally owned businesses (Midtown Exchange, Minneapolis; Mercado, Portland; Thai Town Marketplace, LA)
- and incubators
- UpLift Solutions consulting group, Philadelphia on addressing "food deserts"
- community grocery store (Fare & Square, Chester, PA; Mariposa Food Cooperative, Philadelphia; Richmond East End Initiative)

Housing
- SRO housing (lots and lots of it)
- DIY/self-help/civic engagement programs in public housing to build social and community capital

Transportation
- programs to support take up of biking
- improved transit access ("Largest urban cable car soars over 'desperate' commuters of La Paz," Guardian)
- area improvements to improve access to stations
- discounted transit passes based on income (NYC, San Francisco, Edmonton)

Nonprofits/Arts
- shared spaces for organizations (Nonprofit Centers Inc.)
- shared spaces for arts organizations (many examples)

Etc.

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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Five items about biking as transportation

1.  I love the Christmas tree made up of bikes at the plaza on Ellsworth Avenue in Downtown Silver Spring.  Bike share bikes are at the base, and are rideable.

Christmas tree made up of bikes at the plaza on Ellsworth Avenue in Downtown Silver Spring (bicycle)

2.  In the context of "maintenance of way" writings as it relates to winter weather (I will be re-writing reposting that entry soon enough for the 2017-2018 winter season) it occurs to me that the stairway connecting to the Metropolitan Branch Trail from L Street NW should be heated so that snow and ice stays melted. 

In rebuilding it for that purpose, the "bike gutter" could be switched to the center of the stairwell, like in Bethesda, on the Capital Crescent Trail.

(Since many people carry their bikes up and down the stairs, they must not recognize the boardways on the side are for rolling your bike up or down the stairs.)

stairway connecting to the Metropolitan Branch Trail from L Street NW

Bike gutter/trough, Capital Crescent Trail, Bethesda

3.  Color coordinated litter on the Second Avenue Cycletrack in Silver Spring.

Color coordinated litter on the Second Avenue Cycletrack in Silver Spring

4.  Cargo bike duded up for Christmas, as seen on Pennsylvania Avenue NW.  (It even has lights.  I'd love to see it at night.)

Cargo bike/bicycle duded up for Christmas, as seen on Pennsylvania Avenue NW


5.  Melbourne and Sydney are seeing huge issues with dockless bicycle sharing services ("Melbourne and Sydney are seeing huge issues with dockless bicycle sharing services," News.com) and Seattle ("Hey, you can't park there! Dockless bike-share bikes ending up in inappropriate locations," Washington Post) with people vandalizing the bikes.  In Melbourne, dozens were combined into a mural ("Workers clean up Fitzroy mural built from abandoned oBikes," Victoria Herald-Sun).

Twitter photo of a dockless bike share bike deposited on a bus shelter in Melbourne.

Although so far, one was thrown on the Metrorail tracks ("After fare evading, man throws LimeBike onto tracks, sets fire to box on train platform," WMATA).

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Remaining Walk/Don't Walk Signal using words, southeast intersection of Kansas and Missouri Avenues NW

This needs to be saved for a museum.  (I hope by my mentioning it, it's not replaced.)
Remaining Walk/Don't Walk Signal using words, southeast intersection of Kansas and Missouri Avenues NW

Remaining Walk/Don't Walk Signal using words, southeast intersection of Kansas and Missouri Avenues NW

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School reform "should be" "easy" but it isn't because we ignore the obvious

I can't help but think of the Winston Churchill quote:
You can always trust America to do the right thing, after she has exhausted all other possible alternatives
wrt "school reform."

I probably have a couple hundred pieces, most written back in the Michelle Rhee-Fenty years, about the issue.

Basically, students who are poor need access to more, better, and diverse school-based resources, complemented by family assistance programs, and other supports:

-- "Powerful story of how Bristol Virginia elementary school deals with extremely impoverished students," 2015
-- "Missing the most fundamental point about urban educational reform (in DC)," 2009
-- "Positive Deviance and the DC Public Schools," 2007
-- "Positive deviance in NYC school system remains unrecognized," 2006

The lesson from charter schools isn't that they are somehow better than traditional school settings, but for the most part, the charter schools that are touted tend to be examples of those that get more resources and supports than traditional schools.

-- "No wonder DC school systems are underperforming," 2016

DC efforts to do this -- provide more resources to students and schools with exceptional needs -- pretty much have never gotten off the ground ("Fawning coverage of DC school "reform" doesn't push better practice forward," which discusses the September 2016 Washington City Paper article by Jeffrey Anderson, "Left Behind: How Kaya Henderson Failed At-Risk DCPS Students") at least to the level that is required, although many high quality support programs have been created and implemented.

But systematic school-wide improvement programs haven't been funded or instituted along the lines of efforts such as in Montgomery County, Maryland.

Cheating and lies at Ballou High School.  So it should be no wonder with all the pressures to improve student outcomes, without providing the right kinds of supports and tools necessary to do so, that school administrators lie, cheat and obfuscate, and pass students who shouldn't be passed, which has come out with Ballou High School in DC ("DC plans probe of Ballou High School following report questioning standards," Washington Post). From the article:
D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser launched an investigation Wednesday into allegations that some students who were chronically absent and others who could scarcely read and write were allowed to graduate from Ballou Senior High School in Southeast Washington.

The D.C. Council also announced that following the accusations, it plans to hold a hearing to investigate graduation rates in the city.

At a midday news conference, Bowser and D.C. Public Schools Chancellor Antwan Wilson said they are taking the allegations seriously but stood by Ballou — a historically low-performing high school that has been touted for its seemingly rapid improvements in recent years — and its principal.
They never learn. After all, it took USA Today, not the Washington Post, to investigate the test score cheating that occurred in many DC schools during the Rhee years.

-- "How test cheating is a damning indicator of the problems with the prevailing approach to school "reform"," 2012

Note that I wrote about Ballou in 2005, "Street vs. Middle-class Culture in the DC School System."

IB as an program not susceptible to local cheating.  In a column yesterday, Washington Post education columnist Jay Mathews made the point that in order to improve failing schools, they need an overt and independent reset ("The only way to fix bad high schools is to start over").  From the article:
Ballou has been one of the worst high schools in the country for decades. It would be best to send its poorly served students elsewhere — they can’t do worse at other schools — and start over.

The District has already tried that with encouraging results. Eastern High School shut down for renovation, and during the second year of its reopening, it had just a ninth-grade class. The school added a class each year as it took a remarkably steady, long-term approach to its students’ lack of preparation.

Future Eastern students were offered challenging classes designed by International Baccalaureate in three elementary and two middle schools. The Accelerated Cohort at Eastern (ACE) program was created for ninth- and 10th-graders who had shown “motivation and habits of mind to meet above grade-level academic standards,” as the program’s leaders put it.

This produced startling results. In 2016, Eastern gave 62 IB exams, which were three to five hours long. Forty-two percent of those exams received passing scores from independent graders. In the past on similar tests, the school’s passing rate was usually zero.
I agree.  He discusses the use of IB--International Baccaulaureate--at Eastern High School, with earlier development of IB at feeder elementary and junior high schools as the way to do it.

But he misses a huge point. Programs like IB have a system of accreditation and grading that is independent of the local schools that participate.

The advantage of IB is that it is a national/international program and system of accreditation that can't be gamed by local school administrators, because the testing protocols and grading are independent of the local schools.

That's the kind of reboot that schools like Ballou need.  Otherwise it's merely more of the "The soft bigotry of low expectations" (Washington Post column by Michael Gerson), because school administrators are incentivized to cheat, especially when they aren't provided with the right resources necessary for success.

Note that a few years ago I wrote ("International Baccalaureate program at an impoverished high school in Seattle as a way to improve academic outcomes") about how Rainier Beach High School in Seattle, one of that city's worst performing schools, rebooted through the introduction of IB, with some support--but not enough--from the central administration. 

But at the time I last wrote about it, the school system wasn't willing to provide the small amount of additional resources the school needed to maintain its IB accreditation ("Deal saves Rainier Beach High School's acclaimed IB program," Seattle Times).

This is merely one more example of how the additional resources required for schools serving the impoverished typically aren't forthcoming.

====
WRT the tenor of the Mathews column, for a number of years I've been writing that rebuilding failing schools, especially when so many of DC's high schools have paltry enrollments, is a waste of money, that instead we should be focusing on strengthening the existing schools.

-- "DC wastes $122 million on new high school: evidence of failures in capital improvements planning and budgeting," 2013
-- "DC high schools: capacity vs. enrollment," 2014
-- "DC high school that wasn't needed and built at a cost of $122 million wins sustainability award," 2015

In a neighborhood discussion of the coming renovation of nearby Coolidge High School, data shared stated that the school has had an enrollment of about 400 students !!!!!!! for many years.

DC high school enrollments, 2012-2013 school year

School Enrollment
Anacostia 697
Ballou 791
Banneker 394
Cardozo 537
Coolidge 490
Dunbar 504
Eastern 504
Ellington 551
McKinley 697
Phelps 340
Roosevelt 473
School Without Walls 548
Wilson 1713
Woodson 710

It makes no sense!

This is why I argued that to reduce capacity pressures on Wilson School, Western High School (Ellington School of the Arts) should be converted to a regular high school, and Ellington shifted to one of the Ward 4 high schools -- either Roosevelt or Coolidge -- to allow the local school to focus and to add Metrorail proximity to the city-wide serving Ellington School.

Instead the city spent $175 million on rebuilding Ellington, and will spend close to that amount renovating Coolidge (and adding a middle school as part of the renovation).

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Open access journal articles from Progress in Human Geography

Via email from Sage Publications:

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Sunday, December 10, 2017

The nature of high value ("strong") residential real estate markets.

Corner rowhouse at the southwest corner of New Hampshire and Upshur Streets NW demolished and replaced by a taller, less architecturally attractive building (4100 New Hampshire Avenue NW)
Infill "rowhouse" on Spring Street NW, Columbia Heights, DC.

DC's single family housing stock tends to be made up of comparatively small buildings, most no higher than two-stories tall.  Housing in the core of the city tends to be comprised of attached rowhouses with a mix of apartment buildings. 

Today's Washington Post has a story, "Cities turn to `missing middle` housing to keep older millennials from leaving."

In high value markets, the missing middle isn't about the type of housing, but about the price of housing.  The point the article misses is the cost of property relative to household income.

Levittown House, 1948A house in Levittown, New York, c. 1950s.

The reason you have duplexes, rowhouses, etc. is to fit more housing units on smaller plots of land. 

But in a market where demand is greater than supply, housing size does(n't) matter.

DC has plenty of "middle housing" in terms of size. 

Theoretically, small lot properties cost less, and in high priced markets, smaller properties are more affordable than larger properties.

But it's all relative.  Because of the demand for housing relative to supply, this type of middle housing is not low cost despite it being less desirable compared to the "American Dream" of a large detached house on a large lot.

For example an alley rowhouse or small rowhouses of less than 800 s.f. can still sell for close to $600,000 depending on its location.

Or the Pullman Place DC condominiums, built on the site of a former small industrial building, adds 42 units of housing, each ranging from about 600 s.f. to 1,100 s.f., at prices up to $750,000 per unit ("Pullman Place sits above train tracks behind Union Station and offers Downtown views," Washington Post).

The reason millennials are moving out of the city isn't because they are aging out and no longer wanting to live in the city, but because they want a single family house (detached or attached) and they don't have the ability to fund a $1 million mortgage.

I was just reading an article about Vancouver ("An avalanche of money: An expert on how income disparities are reshaping Canada's metropolitan areas zeroes in on Vancouver," Toronto Globe and Mail), which describes a similar situation as covered in the Post article. 

There, lower value neighborhoods now tend to be located in the suburbs, and farther from the core, by contrast to the time when center city locations were seen as undesirable, center city housing was low priced, not suburban housing.

Supergentrification vs. capital deepening.  I have written about this issue over the years, where I discussed the "supergentrification" thesis of Loretta Lees, applying it to DC, although DC is still relative compared to cities like New York and San

-- "Exogenous market forces impact DC's housing market," 2012
-- "Applying the supergentrification thesis to San Francisco, Santa Monica, and other cities experiencing hyper-demand," 2014

The second piece more succinctly makes the argument, which is that:
The highest wage earners are driving the market in the "best" neighborhoods, not average wage earners.
As DC specifically and high quality urban locations become in demand for larger numbers of people at the scale of the regional residential landscape, prices rise--because more neighborhoods are attractive to more people, and properties are purchased by those who have the most money (cf. "capitalism").

Because housing inventory is constrained, only small increases in demand are necessary to generate large increases in price.

For the most part, most land suitable for residential housing has already been developed, and at comparatively low densities. The city can't grow outward, it can only "grow" intensively.

In the TGM article, Professor David Ley calls the process of high income (a variable indicating a neighborhood in high demand) neighborhoods becoming even higher income, "capital deepening," which I think is a better term than "supergentrification."  From the article:
"Because every time redevelopment occurs you get a substantial increase in the socio economic status of occupants … [market-rate] supply is only for high-income people. So, whenever redevelopment occurs, it means higher income people are occupying the space," says Dr. Ley. "Two things are happening: there is gentrification in the inner city, but then there's what I call 'capital deepening,' which is an area that is becoming richer."
Why adding to housing inventory doesn't lead to lower prices in the short and intermediate terms.  But even if new housing is added, it doesn't "reduce prices" for three reasons.

First, it's built at current prices for land, labor, and materials, so by definition it is the most expensive housing there is.  Second, because of this, it means that only over multi-decade periods as even newer housing is added to the market, will it help to slacken price growth.

Third, in the short and intermediate terms, demand even in the face of additions to the housing supply is still greater than supply. Because demand is greater than supply, housing prices continue to increase.

Spring CleaningTenements in Manhattan tend to be five to seven stories tall.

In DC this is even more pronounced because when most of the housing in the city was constructed, the population was relatively low, so houses and apartment buildings are small, compared to the housing built in cities like New York, Montreal, Philadelphia, Boston around the same time.

Mostly new construction is made up of multiunit housing _in commercial districts_, where it is much easier to build because of building regulations and the fact that by replacing commercial uses, it doesn't displace existing residents.

New houses being constructed at the old Methodist Home, Peabody Street NENew detached and attached houses being constructed at the old Methodist Home, Peabody Street NE, 2006. The building at the heart of the campus was converted to condominiums.


However, here and there institutional properties with "interstitial" qualities get converted to "no lot" single family housing (e.g., the old Methodist Home property on New Hampshire Ave. NE almost on the Maryland border, the EYA development in Brookland, Chancellors Row, from land deaccessioned by St. Paul's College, the EYA proposed project on land being deaccessioned by St. Joseph's Seminary, etc.

Interstitial properties tend to not be particularly close to high capacity transit.

$1 million is the ceiling for housing prices in many DC neighborhoods.  It seems as if housing prices in a majority of in-demand DC neighborhoods for "average sized houses" (that is, less than 2,000 s.f., with variable lot sizes--smaller in the core, larger in the Outer City) will stabilize in the range of $1 million.

(Neighborhoods like Georgetown, Dupont Circle, Cleveland Park, Chevy Chase, with different characteristics, have a ceiling price at an even higher scale.)

House for sale ad, Northwest Current (DC), 12/6/2017Northwest Current housing ad, 12/6/2017.

Many neighborhoods are at that price point, judging by real estate ads in the Northwest Current and the Hill Rag, the city's leading community newspapers covering the city's most in-demand neighborhoods.

Other neighborhoods are moving towards that point (e.g. the most recent sale on my block in Manor Park, for a detached house, no larger than 1/6 of an acre, completely renovated, was about $835,000, for a location not quite one mile to a Metrorail station.  Interestingly, that price was higher than for two other houses, larger, that sold on the block over the previous few months.)

At current interest rates,* the $1 million price is affordable to two-earner households with high incomes, especially with the tax benefits that flow back from federal income tax deductions for mortgage interest and state and local taxes.

It seems as if that million dollar price is a real ceiling, given a house I know about for sale on the 100 block of 4th Street SE in the heart of Capitol Hill.

Renovated, with a basement rental unit, within a couple blocks of the US Capitol, and on the market for less than $1.2 million. You can't find a better location in terms of proximity to Downtown, the Capitol, transit, walkscores, etc., so if the market were "unlimited" on the buying side, the price would likely be higher.

Urban sociology provides the nuance necessary to understand urban housing economics.  It happens just yesterday I ran into a local historian at a neighborhood craft fair and we had an extended conversation about these issues, structural racism, etc.--what a great city it is to be able to have the opportunities for such random conversations!

To understand what's going on, it's important to be conversant with urban sociology, Robert Park's The City, which lays out the foundations of US urban sociology, and Urban Fortunes, which discusses why cities are focused on real estate development and land use intensification as the primary driver of the local economy, since local government finance is dependent on property tax revenue.

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* Federal tax law changes will significantly change the nature of the housing market in strong market cities.  Note that the changes likely coming to the tax code will significantly change housing pricing in hyperstrong markets like DC because of limitations on mortgage interest deductions and the elimination of deductions for state and local taxes (although apparently a $10,000 cap on deductions may end up in the final bill).

An $800,000 mortgage costs between $4,500 and $5,000/mo. in interest. When you can deduct that from your taxes, sustaining million dollar housing pricing is much easier.

Special housing market problems unique to DC: federal government downsizing.  DC's housing market also will experience a downturn, or at least a slackening of price escalation and appreciation not just because of the tax law changes, but because of the Trump-McConnell-Ryan Administration's focus on reducing the size of government.

Agencies are getting cut as it is.  Units are being dismantled.  People are losing their (high paying) jobs.

Even if Democrats take either or both the House and the Senate in 2018, this process will not be reversed until Democrats control the Executive Branch.

Granted a lot of the benefits of federal government employment are enjoyed by DC's suburbs--more than 60% of the jobs located within Washington, DC are held by people not living in DC--but DC is already being impacted, not just with older millennials as discussed in today's Post, but also with younger millennials, who don't see opportunities in working for government or in related fields ("The millennials who transformed D.C. after the recession are now leaving for cheaper cities," Post) so they have stopped moving to DC, and it was millennials that drove the city's recent increase in population.

Growing the base of middle housing: intensification.  Separately, there are three ways to intensify land use and add housing units to places that otherwise are for the most part, built out.

1.  Adding multiunit buildings by converting low dense commercial properties (and interstitial pieces of institutional properties).

2.  Making existing houses bigger and/or breaking up larger houses into multiple, smaller units.

3.  Adding English basements and carriage houses to existing properties.

By severely limiting height and "defining density down" (e.g., "D.C. court rejects Brookland project for a third and possibly final time," Washington Business Journal) residents clamoring about housing affordability are eliminating opportunities to address the problem, albeit the results aren't discernable for multiple decades.

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Saturday, December 09, 2017

Signs and marquees as public art and landmarks

I am a fan of outdoor signage as an urban design element of commercial districts and communities more generally.  Although some quarters, such as the group Scenic America, look at most forms of outdoor advertising as a desecration of the public space.

Sure, places like Times Square in New York City, Piccadilly Circus in London ("Advertisers set to fight to have their name in lights at Piccadilly Circus," London Evening Standard), or sign-marked urban arterials in many cities can be somewhat cacophonous, but they also acknowledge, even celebrate commercialism in the context of the buoyant capitalism that marks the United States as the USA.

In DC, there is some billboard signage around Gallery Place and the Capital One Arena but it pales vis a vis NYC.  The Downtown Silver Spring district in Montgomery County has developed a kind of Times Square effect, on a much smaller scale, with signage on one shopping center complemented by the neon signage of the cinemas across the street.
Ellsworth Place night time signage, Downtown Silver Spring, Ellsworth Avenue and Fenton Street
The Downtown Silver Spring night time signage is more bright than it is an artistic and aesthetic element of the streetscape.

Three recent sign type projects, although one is in Canada, are noteworthy, as they involved serious historic preservation and restoration efforts.

Two wrinkles with signs are (1) the old signs -- neon and electric -- tend to be more novel, but as other forms of advertising supplanted place-based advertising (signs and billboards), these types of signage fell out of use generally, replaced by back lit signs originally and now digital signs, and specifically, as companies went out of business; (2) defunct companies matter in terms of maintaining signage not only because they were motivated and successors are not, but because building regulations typically require the removal of the signs of defunct businesses regardless of the artistic and historic merits.

1.  The Toronto Star reports ("Sam the Record Man sign lights up Yonge Dundas Square") that the sign advertising the original location of Sam the Record Man has been restored, after being out of commission for more than 10 years.

sam_sign.jpg.size-custom-crop.0x650
Jaren Kern, Toronto Star.


2. The Los Angeles Times reports ("Rare vintage electric sign lights up Sunset Boulevard again after a restoration") about the restoration of the Jensen's Recreation Center moving sign, which shows a bowler throwing strikes. From the article:
Considered groundbreaking technology at the time of its installation, the sign is controlled by a series of electric motors that switch the 1,300 red, green and white light bulbs on and off to give the appearance of movement.

The sign was mostly dark for about 50 years but has just been restored by new owners Vista Investment Group. ...

Animated incandescent signs predated neon signs, which became popular in the 1920s, said Eric Evavold, former board member of the Museum of Neon Art in Glendale. The Jensen’s sign is one of the largest such vintage, operable signs left in the world, he said.

“It’s incredible that this sign was just sitting there in the middle of the city for so long,” Evavold said. “This is a special jewel in our illuminated sign history.”



3. In Ann Arbor, the owners of the State Theatre building -- the top is still used for events, the bottom of the building has long been rented out as a separate retail space -- have restored the marquee ("Ann Arbor's newly restored State Theatre marquee more dazzling than ever," Ann Arbor News) as part of an upgrade to the entire property. The State Theatre is where I saw movies like "Purple Rain."

Restoration of the State Theatre marquee, Ann Arbor
The State Theatre's marquee was relit after a period of renovations in downtown Ann Arbor on Friday, December 1, 2017. The State Theatre will officially reopen on Friday, December 8. Hunter Dyke | The Ann Arbor News


For a long time the separate Michigan Theater has been a nonprofit, showing films, concerts, etc. for decades, while the State Theatre had generally owned by regional cinema chains. 

At some point, the Michigan Theater Foundation also acquired the State Theatre.  Since the buildings are located within a block of each other, this kind of joint operation (not unlike what the Playhouse Square Foundation does in Cleveland -- "PlayhouseSquare stars in its own real estate revival," Cleveland Plain Dealer) makes sense.

The Ann Arbor combination of the State Theatre with the Michigan Theater is an illustration of my point about BTMFBA ("BTMFBA: the best way to ward off artist or retail displacement is to buy the building"), if you want to control the space and retain it as an element of the network of a community's civic and cultural assets, most often you're going to have to buy it yourself.

By contrast, DC's Takoma Theatre is slated to become a clinic facility for Children's Hospital, when at one point it was the most intact extant neighborhood theater property remaining in DC.

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Thursday, December 07, 2017

A note on food halls

Dueling stories, positive ("Why Millennials, Landlords Love The American Food Hall," Bisnow) and negative ("The Inflated Promise of the American Food Hall," New Yorker Magazine) make it important to discern what's going on with food halls.

I've written about the phenomenon of food halls a bunch over the past few years.  Food halls are like public markets in that they are seemingly shared spaces, but (1) they aren't run by cities but by real estate companies, so they are very much for profit opeartions, and (2) they tend to sell prepared foods, not fresh foods.

With the demise of traditional retail, real estate developers looking to keep their properties leased and attractive have seized on food halls as "a product" ("How artisan food halls are transforming malls," JLL Real Views)..

In DC, Union Market is a food hall, and food halls are opening in the suburbs ("DC's 'Top Chef' supersizes it: A preview of Isabella Eatery," WTOP Radio). Events DC has suggested creating a food hall as part of its redevelopment of the RFK campus even though it is less than one mile from DC's Eastern Market and about two miles from Union Market.

A few months back I wrote an update to the "Richard's Rules for Restaurant-Based Revitalization" oeuvre ("Destination restaurants as a call for revisiting "Richard's Rules for Restaurant-Based Revitalization""), making three points:

  • Establishments serving regulars/neighborhood residents have a more positive impact on commercial district improvement. Neighborhood residents have different interests from "foodies" visiting a high profile restaurant in a neighborhood with which they are otherwise unfamiliar.  Residents visit and buy from other neighborhood-based retailers, if not on the same trip to the restaurant.
  • Food tourists are unlikely to support neighborhood retail. "Food tourists" choosing to eat a high profile restaurant are visiting the restaurant but not the place or what else is there. Even if they become regulars at the restaurant rather than one-time customers, they are still not likely to explore the district beyond the restaurant. They definitely aren't interested in extending their trip by shopping local retailers.
  • But the publicity value of destination restaurants can be leveraged.

Also see the 2016 piece, "Successful retail today often includes food, experiences, social elements, and isn't rote."

Similarly, we need to think in a more nuanced way about the value of food halls, for both patrons and the operators. 

While destination restaurants are great for neighborhood commercial districts in terms of generating publicity and buzz, they may not support other revitalization goals.  The same goes for food halls.  If tenancy doesn't work out for a vendor, they could lose tons of money even if the property owner still does well.
  • Food halls targeting daytime office workers are not likely to be a super good thing for operators, especially those seeking to sell unique products.  This gets back to the point about how office workers support a very narrow category of food service--quick service--and expensive eats.
  • Food halls developed to be more of a destination and focused on evening and weekend dayparts are likely to be successful for operators
  • Provided that the format isn't over-used and/or that the population-base is large enough to support multiple competitors
Office districts tend to not have a particularly high quality range of food service options.  Think of this in your area.  I know with the DC area, Crystal City, Rosslyn, and the Carlyle District in Northern Virginia, most federal districts across the metropolitan area (e.g., Suitland, L'Enfant Plaza), etc., are quite dull restaurant-wise.

In a time when capital reigns supreme, labor tends to not feel as if it has the leeway to be able to go out for a long lunch.  Maybe people do so every few weeks/once per month.  Otherwise, they are looking for a quick and cheap bite--which is why chains like Panera have been on the rise for awhile.  So for all the talk about "mixed use" and how office supports retail development, the reality is something different.

One of the places where I first noticed the burgeoning food hall movement is in Orange County, California, a large suburban county with 3.1 million residents in Southern California("Your guide to Orange County food halls," Los Angeles Times; "Are There Really Eight? We Check In On OC's Food Halls," OC Weekly; Orange County Could Teach LA a Few Things About Food Halls," EaterLA).

While there are many examples, the food section of the OC Mix, a redeveloped furniture complex, and the Anaheim Packing District adaptation of a former fruit packing building are the ones that stick out.

But these food halls target the shopper looking to shop and or seeking out unique experiences.  They are destinations, and they are focused on night-time and weekend business, which is the time of day when retailers and restaurants make most of their sales.

These are destinations not focused on center city office workers, although they probably get some of that sort of business given their proximity to office districts in Anaheim and Costa Mesa.

OC Mix has a number of high quality vendors, from coffee to food to cakes, complemented by interesting retail. Sadly, the Surfas restaurant supply store that was open to the public closed ("What's happening with Surfas, the great SoCal cooking shop," Los Angeles Times).

I've worked hard trying to duplicate this moist, rich chocolate cake recipe.  I've come close, but haven't been able to match it.

For example, the regional SusieCakes chain has a store there, which sells some of the best cakes I've ever tasted.  How many times have you purchased items at a market and said "that's one of the best foods I've ever tasted?"

The Packing District is like Union Market in DC, but probably 10 times better in terms of the quality of the food on offer--but by contrast, Union Market creatively uses what would otherwise be crappy parking lots and loading docks for programming and events which constantly attract new audiences.

That being said, the Packing District is plenty programmed, which makes sense given that it is run by one of the nation's most creative retailing operations ("Most Influential 2014: Shaheen Sadeghi led an independent revival in Anaheim," and "Can anti-mall and Packing House developer work his Midas touch," Orange County Register).


The vendors don't all succeed, and yes, there is little fresh food sold separate from prepared meals and items, although some vendors may have little markets as part of their offering, but likely the  average transaction is much higher in what I would call a "destination food hall" versus an "office worker/daytime food hall".

The Mike Isabella operation in one of the nation's largest malls in Tysons in Fairfax Virginia will be more like the destination food halls in Orange County and is more likely to be successful, provided it can overcome its mall location and whether or not it will generate repeat customers seeking out its offerings whether or not they come to shop--over time, even upscale "food courts" (one of the first was in Oakland County Michigan back in the mid-1970s, called Tally Hall) get tired and either get refreshed or shut down in favor of something else.

Recommendations for vendors.  In short, if as a vendor, you're looking at an office worker oriented food hall, be sure your product makes sense as a quick service item.  Focus, maybe sell the best possible corned beef sandwich, or falafel, something really good.  Otherwise, find a location where the demographics are a better fit for what you're trying to do.

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Brief revisiting of small store grocery format stories: big companies continue to say "no"

For years I have been arguing that center cities, but by extension town centers and conurbations "in the suburbs" too, can be the location of successful smaller format grocery stores.

For example, see "Urban grocery shopping" (2006) and this 2008 op-ed, "Urban Safeway misses mark," from the Washington Business Journal.

I was quite heartened that Ahold Delhaize, the parent company of the DC-area Giant chain, which in my opinion had lost its edge ("Urban retail #4: how to prevent the coming failure of the DC region's Giant Supermarket chain," 2012) but now seems to be more on the ball, not only in pricing, but in upping its game on private label, had opened two different small store formats, Everything Fresh in Philadelphia, and bfresh in Boston.

And I was about to write a "revisiting stories" piece versus the 2012 Giant piece.

Good thing I didn't because a few weeks ago, the company announced they are junking their small store effort, merging it from a separate initiative into their Stop and Shop division ("Supermarket chain said to be dropping small Bfresh stores planned for Philly ," Philadelphia Inquirer; "Stop & Shop to rebrand bfresh chain, close 1 store," Boston Globe).

Separately, this week, Kroger announced that they won't be expanding their Main & Vine one-off "small format" store, which is based in Gig Harbor, a Seattle suburb ("Main & Vine in Gig Harbor closing in January," Tacoma News-Tribune).

The reality is that most large chains aren't set up to think too carefully about differentiated formats.  Kroger is a great example that I wrote about recently ("Problem solvers vs. possibility thinkers (and Kroger)"). 

Kroger has gobs of best practice initiatives spread out across their various divisions, stuff new to me that I keep finding out about, such as the Kroger Signature store, which like Kroger Fresh Fare, is about providing a high grade experience, but not quite to the level of a Wegman's, Market District, or Central Market. And recently, they announced they'll be adding a restaurant to a store ("Here's your first look at Kroger's new restaurant concept, Kitchen 1883," WCPO-TV), something that chains like Hy-Vee and Wegman's have been doing for awhile.

But imo, they aren't very good at systematically capturing and harvesting this best practice and building it in as standard operating procedure and transforming their operations, even though they are good at adding nonfood items to stores (Fred Meyer, Marketplace format) or having upper scale but not super duper supermarkets.

And so it makes sense that they aren't willing to commit to the creation and maintenance of a separate urban initiative.  I guess the company's failure to not buy the Marsh's downtown store in Indianapolis earlier this year that was an example of a differentiated center city store is another confirmation of this.

The one major exception is Giant-Eagle's Market District Express.  The only significant exception to this trend seems to be Market District, Giant-Eagle's upscale store group, which has opened up some significantly smaller stores, in various Ohio area markets ("Giant Eagle Market District Express opens in Bexley," Columbus Business First).  G-E also has a somewhat upscale convenience store chain, called GetGo, that better leverages its relationship to G-E than does Kroger's convenience store divisions to its supermarket divisions.

A potential exception.  Shoprite, the banner of the Wakefern supermarket business cooperative acquired the right to market the "Fresh Grocer" banner when the company running it joined the group ("Fresh Grocer Joins Wakefern Co-op," Supermarket News). 

Fresh Grocer is a small format urban grocery store in the Philadelphia area.  But it doesn't seem to have been used in a new location outside of the Philadelphia market since the acquisition of the brand, although one member of the cooperative, in addition to the original operators, have adopted the format for some of their new stores going forward (but they aren't small).

FWIW, About 10 years ago, Fresh Grocer was considering entering the DC market.

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A quick comment on I-66 tolling

-- Transform 66 in Northern Virginia


This week, rush hour tolling has been introduced to I-66, the east-west Virginia interstate that provides access to DC. 

In advance of the launch, there has been a fair amount of communication about it, including full-page ads in the Washington Post and in other media (don't recall seeing tv ads, but then since the November 2016 election, I don't watch tv news very much), and media coverage ("Interstate 66 tolling starts Monday. Here's what you need to know," Washington Post).

I've written about this in the context of corridor management planning ("Transportation network interruptions as an opportunity: Part 2") and indirectly in terms of conceptualizing a broad plan of improvement of the Northern Virginia transit network in the context of the Silver Line extension ("Using the Silver Line as the priming event, what would a transit network improvement program look like for NoVA?").

As an occasional driver, of course I prefer to not have to pay tolls, but as a planner, I recognize why you want to charge tolls, not only to raise the monies necessary to pay for transportation infrastructure, but also to provide better "cues" to encourage more optimal choices in the context of supply, demand, and infrastructure supply constraints.

Transportation is one of those areas where consumers and elected officials especially want to believe that it has nothing to do with economics. 

The reality is that the failure to apply economic decision-making to transportation creates "market failures" a/k/a "congestion," although this is abetted by what I call transportation physics and the difference between personal mobility and mass transit--the latter uses space much more efficiently.

One 40-foot bus transports as many people as are usually carried in about 60 cars.
Amount of space required to transport the user the same number of passengers by car, bus, or bicycle

The thing about the I-66 toll program is that it contravenes the typical experience across the US in terms of having specific toll roads, especially HOT -- High Occupancy Toll -- lanes.

Other than HOT lanes, the DC metropolitan area has two toll roads in Northern Virginia (Dulles Toll Road, Dulles Greenway, and people aren't particularly enamored with them, and many users lack alternatives. (Elsewhere in Maryland and Virginia there are various bridge and tunnels that are tolled, and other tolled roads, including a stretch of I-95 towards the Maryland-Delaware border.)

Typically, HOT lanes add capacity but restrict access to those willing to pay the price to use the lanes, while still providing access to lanes that aren't tolled. The idea is that the toll is variable, designed to maintain the flow of high speed traffic. As capacity is absorbed by toll payers, the toll rises in order to discourage people from using the lanes, in order to maintain a relatively high speed.

On day one of new tolls along I-66 inside the Capital Beltway, climbed over $30. (WTOP/Dave Dildine, "I-66 afternoon tolls moderate after ‘unfair’ $40 morning high."

The I-66 tolling project hasn't added any capacity.  Heretofore, rush hour access to I-66 has been limited to vehicles with two or more occupants (with exceptions for hybrid vehicles and people traveling to Dulles Airport), and the entire freeway was treated as "High Occupancy Vehicle" lanes.

The toll project has removed the HOV restriction.  Now, previously non-qualified drivers -- single occupant vehicles -- can use the road during rush periods, if they pay.  HOV-2 users can still drive for free, and hybrid vehicles no longer have an HOV-exception.

What the tolling project does is increase demand to use the road, with no increase in lane capacity.  Normally, HOT lanes add capacity in return for restricting access to people willing to pay for it.

Looking west on Lee Highway, lines of cars split between taking I-66 vs. staying on Lee Highway What the project during rush hour Monday. (Jahi Chikwendiu/The Washington Post).

So yes, compared to other toll lanes in the area, tolls on I-66 are likely to be "outlandish" ("Day 3 I-66 toll hits $23. Are commuters finding alternatives?" and "I-66 express lanes debut with $34.50 toll, among the highest in the U.S.," Washington Post) because now more cars will be competing for the same amount of road space.

And as Charlie points out in a comment, it communicates a major problem with "Public Private Partnerships," in that they are contractual and the operator is typically uninterested in being flexible. 

Furthermore, concessionaires are somewhat insulated from bad press even if they get it, because they have contracts that are pretty much impregnable.

Although it can come back to haunt the elected officials who approved the contracts.

The I-66 project is even trickier because at one level, the State of Virginia wants to encourage business to locate in Virginia instead of DC, so the outlandish pricing is a "feature, not a bug" to encourage businesses to leave DC so that their employees "don't have to" drive the toll road.

At the same time, there aren't transit improvements, at least in the short and intermediate term, such as those suggested in the Meissner-Layman idealized transit network map--extending the Orange Line west, creating a separated Silver Line, adding a new "Pink Line"--giving people alternatives, and increasing "transportation infrastructure supply" in significant ways.

Conceptual Future integrated rail transit service network for the Washington DC National Capitol Region. Design by Paul J. Meissner.  Concept by Richard Layman and Paul Meissner.

In fact, were Virginia to extend the Orange Line west, they'd have to pay penalties to the concessionaire.

However, what I would have done, were I the concessionaire, is have had a "free" one- or two-week introductory period with the toll pricing being communicated in real-time, so people would have a much better sense for how much the tolls were going to be.

Even so, it's not going to help DC, and DC has no ability to influence the process.  By contrast, in California, most toll roads are run by the counties or Joint Powers Authorities that are cross-jurisdictional.

And the separate programs for each of the "states" -- DC, Maryland, and Virginia -- don't seem to be too well coordinated. 

Orange and Riverside Counties in California offer a significant contrast, where they jointly manage the the SR-91 toll corridor--a corridor management plan. The toll road started out as an exclusive Orange County project, but have ben extended by Riverside County for 8 miles, to better manage the road resource and add capacity ("91 Express Lanes in Orange County paved way for new toll lanes opening Monday in Riverside Orange County Register). The counties as operators coordinate management, tolling, collections, etc.

Such integration and coordination seems a foreign concept here. Cf. "The answer is: Create a single multi-state/regional multi-modal transit planning, management, and operations authority association"

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Night time as a daypart and a design product

In the commercial district revitalization framework plans I did for a couple of small towns, I was proud of the concept I outlined of planning the district in terms of "dayparts" -- think how restaurants are organized around different times of day such as breakfast, happy hour, dinner, and late night -- and to plan the retail and programming mix accordingly.

This graphic isn't particularly scintillating but was included in the Cambridge, Maryland plan and the daypart planning concept is described in more detail on p. 18.
Dayparts as a planning concept for commercial districts
By taking into consideration the time of day as a major influence on business opportunities, the mix of retail, services, attractions, special events and other programming can be planned in a manner that maximizes patronage of the commercial district throughout the day and into the evening (p. 17).



A few minutes after I had the thought about how cities ought to employ lighted street signs more frequently ("More cities should have lighted street signs"), and having recently mentioned the Bath UK Bath City Centre Lighting Strategy, in keeping with thinking for awhile about "Night-time safety: rethinking lighting in the context of a walking community" (2014), and also recent media coverage in DC ("Does D.C. Need A 'Night Mayor' To Oversee City Nightlife?," Kojo Nnamdi Show, WAMU-FM/NPR) and New York City ("NYC Nightlife: City Hiring Night Mayor to Revive Scene," Fortune Magazine) about creation of Offices of Night Life, Night Mayors ("What Europe's 'Night Mayors' Can Teach New York," New York Times), not to mention my writings about usability, the design process, especially how Transport for London has "design managers" for each of its transit modes, etc., I thought:
Why not treat the Urban Night Time daypart as a "design product"?
Because the reality is that a 24-hour city is more than merely stoking nightlife, it's dealing with all of the special needs that arise at night.

From nightlife and dealing with the edges of night time commercial district activity and residential areas, to night time transit, and public safety, including but not limited to lighting.

For example, many cities and regions have well-developed and defined "night transit networks." DC does not. London, granted one of the leading cities of the world, is developing and expanding its weekend overnight service on both the Tube and now the London Overground rail network, which launches December 15th.

By contrast, weekend and night time service of the DC-area Metrorail system has seriously degraded and hasn't been made up for by the creation of a defined night time bus network.

And the rise of Uber and Lyft services especially at night and on weekends has created traffic problems that are addressable ("Uber, Lyft Get a Prime Location in D.C. Nightlife," CityLab).

Clearly, DC itself does not have a systematic strategy for dealing with night time lighting in all its dimensions, even as it is pursuing a total upgrade of the streetlight network (Project Profile: Street Light Modernization, DC Office of Public and Private Partnerships).
Downtown Silver Spring sign, lit up at night
Downtown Silver Spring sign, lit up at night (although in point 18, "Assess branding-identity and retune marketing," in this entry, I argue this sign could be much stronger visually and as part of the Silver Spring brand).

And interestingly, Silver Spring, Maryland's public space along Ellsworth Avenue combined with the Silver Spring Civic Building and Veterans Plaza ends up being one of the only major public spaces in the metropolitan area that is active at night. We need to harvest what can be learned from it.

Etc.

Although, I made similar points, although not about night time as a product specifically, in the recent entry on World Usability Day

Also see "All the talk of e-government, digital government, and open source government is really about employing the design method" (2012) and "What is Product Design?," Medium.

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